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Biological Opinion - Draft from Excel Spreadsheets GRAND SUMMARY July 27, 2000

	Spring / Summer Chinook							Fall Chinook
	Imnaha River	Marsh Creek	Minam River	Poverty Flats	Johnson Creek	Bear Valley	Sulphur Creek	Snake River
Egg-to-Smolt	0.013	0.019	0.025	0.024	0.027	0.29	0.039	not avail
Smolt at 1st Dam per Spawner	36.5	52.7	69.6	68.6	75.5	80.4	109.8	not avail
Juvenile Hydro Survival Direct & Indirect	(High Hydro Estimate)
Base	0.470							0.101
Current	0.560							0.117
Aggresive	0.567							0.135
4-Dam Breach	0.609							0.348
Juvenile	Estuary and Early Ocean							include egg-to-smolt
Non-Hydro Survival	0.062							0.046
Juvenile Hydro Survival Direct & Indirect	(Low Hydro Estimate)
Base	0.128							0.082
Current	0.153							0.095
Aggresive	0.155							0.110
4-Dam Breach	0.609							0.244
Juvenile	Estuary and Early Ocean							include egg-to-smolt
Non-Hydro Survival	0.227							0.056
Ocean Survival Rate ("Natural")
Base	0.566							0.412
Current	0.566							0.498
In River Harvest Rate	0.053	0.082	0.082	0.025	0.025	0.082	0.082	0.174
Adult Passage Survival
Base	0.794							0.607
Current	0.794							0.607
Aggresive	0.851							0.721
4-Dam Breach	0.851							0.721
Pre-Spawning Survival	.900							0.900
Egg-to-Adult Survival
Base	0.00014	0.00020	0.00027	0.00028	0.00031	0.00031	0.00042	0.00059
Current	0.00017	0.00024	0.00032	0.00033	0.00037	0.00037	0.00050	0.00092
Aggresive	0.00019	0.00026	0.00035	0.00036	0.00040	0.00040	0.00055	0.00126
4-Dam Breach
High Hydro Estimate	0.00020	0.00028	0.00037	0.00039	0.00043	0.00043	0.00059	0.00324
Low Hydro Estimate	0.00074	0.00103	0.00136	0.00143	0.00157	0.00157	0.00215	0.00279
Adult-to-Adult Return Ratio
Base	0.406	0.569	0.751	0.786	0.865	0.867	1.184	0.850
Current	0.484	0.678	0.896	0.937	1.031	1.034	1.412	1.322
Aggresive	0.526	0.736	0.973	1.018	1.120	1.124	1.534	1.818
4-Dam Breach	`
High Hydro Estimate	0.566	0.793	1.048	1.097	1.206	1.210	1.652	3.272
Low Hydro Estimate	2.064	2.892	3.822	4.000	4.398	4.413	6.025	5.764
	Imnaha River	Marsh Creek	Minam River	Poverty Flats	Johnson Creek	Bear Valley	Sulphur Creek	Snake River
	Spring / Summer Chinook							Fall Chinook

Spring Chinook - average of 94-99 WYs in future, average of D=0.63 and D=0.73

High Hydro Estimate
• no delayed mortality on non-transported fish
  

Lambda (Based on 1980-99)	Spring / Summer Chinook							Fall Chinook
Hatchery Effectiveness	Imnaha River	Marsh Creek	Minam River	Poverty Flats	Johnson Creek	Bear Valley	Sulphur Creek	Snake River
"Null" 20% 80%	0.792  0.623	0.942  0.942	0.798  0.599	0.978  0.929	0.995  0.995	0.990	0.972  0.972	0.836  0.640
Change in Lambda needed
to Reach Recovery Abundance Level in 48-Years	1.32  1.68	1.13	1.32  1.76	1.05  1.11	1.03	1.06	1.10	1.253  1.637
to Reach Recovery Abundance Level in 100-Years	1.29  1.64	1.09	1.28  1.71	1.04  1.09	1.02	1.03	1.06	1.222  1.596
to Reduce Extinction Risk to 5% in 24-Years	1.05  1.61	1.00	1.17  1.69	1.00  1.00	1.00	1.00	1.07	1.000  1.255
to Reduce Extinction Risk to 5% in 100-Years	1.24  1.77	1.08	1.31  1.84	1.01  1.07	1.00	1.02	1.15	1.160  1.525
Needed Survival Rate Change
to Reach Recovery Abundance Level in 48-Years (Table C-4)	3.51  10.52	1.77	3.49  12.76	1.25  1.59	1.15	1.30	1.53	2.54  7.63
to Reach Recovery Abundance Level in 100-Years (Table C-5)	3.16  9.47	1.50	3.08  11.27	1.17  1.48	1.08	1.16	1.30	2.29  6.87
to Reduce Extinction Risk to 5% in 24-Years (Table C-2)	1.25  8.65	1.00	2.03  10.59	1.00  1.00	1.00	1.00	1.36	1.00  2.55
to Reduce Extinction Risk to 5% in 100-Years (Table C-3)	2.67  13.51	1.42	3.33  15.58	1.05  1.33	1.00	1.09	1.84	1.84  5.70
	Imnaha River	Marsh Creek	Minam River	Poverty Flats	Johnson Creek	Bear Valley	Sulphur Creek	Snake River
	Spring / Summer Chinook							Fall Chinook

Hatchery effectiveness - incorporates the proportion of natural spawners that were of hatchery-origin but assumes that hatchery fish have been 0%, 20% or 80% as productive as spawneres of wild-origin.

Related Links:
Columbia Basin Salmon Recovery Strategy