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WSU Economist: Low Wheat Prices to Persist Through May by Matthew Weaver Capital Press, November 24, 2025

USDA projects an average price of
$5 per bushel nationwide for the year

COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho -- Despite some up-side opportunities, lower wheat prices will persist through the 2025-2026 marketing year, Washington State University's small grains economist says.

Based on current market conditions, a December 2026 futures price approaching $6.50 per bushel to $6.60 per bushel could be an opportunity to start new crop sales, Randy Fortenbery, WSU's Thomas B. Mick Endowed Chair in Small Grain Economics, said.

"If there is a shock to the market, it will probably be to the upside," Fortenbery said. If the market reaches higher prices, "they may not be there for very long."

Fortenbery spoke Nov. 19 during the Washington Association of Wheat Growers annual convention in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho.

The current futures market carry suggests forward pricing stored wheat could be "attractive," Fortenbery said. Hedge to arrive contracts may be the best strategy, he said.

Price levels and basis -- Portland cash price minus the futures price -- suggest storing un-priced wheat is not as risky this year compared to recent years, but improved prices are not guaranteed, Fortenbery said.

USDA projects an average price of $5 per bushel nationwide for the marketing year.

Export pace

For the next few months, what matters most is the export pace, Fortenbery said.

USDA projects 900 million bushels will be exported for the current marketing year, which ends May 30.

At least 45% of the crop must have access to the international market. This year, 44% of the crop is expected to be exported.

"On the export side, things look really good," Fortenbery said. "The problem is, the reason exports look really good is, prices are low."

It's important that wheat exports continue to move to keep prices from further deteriorating, he said. 

If weekly shipments are lagging about halfway through the marketing year to hit USDA projections, the market begins to soften. 

The market needs to average exports of about 17 million bushels per week to hit the 900 million bushel figure.

10-year low

"Big carryouts, low prices," Fortenbery said.

Wheat acres and harvested acres have declined in the last two years.

"But we had awesome yields, that's how we got the big crop," he said, pointing to a 55 bushel per acre national average. This year, it could decline to 51 bushels per acre.

He predicts a 10-year low in national wheat acreage, with hard red winter and spring wheat farmers turning instead to corn and soybeans. Acres could be up in Washington and Idaho, he added.

That's price-positive for the 2026 crop, but doesn't necessarily mean positive price expectations from now through next May, Fortenbery said.

All major exporters are up about 18%, Fortenbery said. Any unexpected demand entering the market won't have the same impact as if supplies were tight. All exporters are in position to respond aggressively to any new export market incentives.

"Trade is expected to be up this year, so that's positive," Fortenbery said. "But we're still not going to consume enough domestically across the entire globe to bring the entire stock picture down within the next year."

Buying fuel

A grower asked Fortenbery when he should be buying fuel. Fortenbery doesn't recommend "getting too aggressive."

"Upside may be more limited than downside," he said of fuel prices. "I wouldn't be buying thousands of gallons and filling tanks at this point, because I think you might see a little bit better price later."

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