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'Lowest Prices We've Seen in Years,' WSU Small Grains Economist Says by Matthew Weaver Capital Press, August 12, 2025

Talk of tariffs and trade deals doesn't appear
to be benefitting or hindering farmers

December wheat futures contracts set a record low price last week, and there's not much room for upside in the near future, says Washington State University's small grains economist.

Wheat ending stocks at the end of May were the largest in six years, said Randy Fortenbery, Thomas B. Mick Endowed Chair in Small Grains Economics.

"That's putting a damper on the market, and the other commodities aren't doing a lot better," Fortenbery said, referring to corn and soybeans. "It's just kind of a tough environment right now."

Soft white wheat is $6.10 per bushel on the Portland market.

The harvest season is typically the lowest price of the year, Fortenbery said.

"It's just that we're at the lowest prices we've seen in years, this year," he said. "Oftentimes, we have to get past October and the corn harvest as well before we start thinking about what might be positives on the price side

He recommends farmers be patient.

"If you don't have a way to hold it after harvest, then you're not going to have a lot of options, and I'm not optimistic we'll see a significantly higher price in the next few weeks," he said.

Export demand

Exports are ahead of where they need to be to hit USDA's projected export estimates, and significantly higher than the last two years, Fortenbery said.

Trending

But it's still early in the marketing year. Fortenbery typically begins making export projections in September.

"Generally, the demand side doesn't look bad," he said. "But we had an increase in production this year, and the demand hasn't off-set that increase in production, so carryout is going to go up

Several wheat industry leaders have sent the message to customers overseas that with such low prices, it's a good time for them to purchase U.S. and Pacific Northwest wheat.

Fortenbery thinks that's probably good messaging. He wonders if customers are buying more "aggressively" now, and whether exports will drop off later in the year.

"Certainly at this price we're very competitive in the world market," he said. "Demand looks good, exports are doing quite well, but not well enough to bring us out of the current price environment

Trade uncertainty

Talk of tariffs and trade deals doesn't appear to be benefitting or hindering farmers, Fortenbery said.

"There's still so much uncertainty about where we're actually going with that," he said.

Mexico is typically one of the largest buyers of U.S. wheat nationwide, sometimes the largest.

"We really haven't resolved anything with Mexico yet," Fortenbery said. "It remains to be seen how that impacts our market going forward

Another factor is trade deals between other countries, such as the European Union's trade with Canada.

"It's not just our bilateral agreements, but also the agreements between the other trading partners that affect the market longer-term," Fortenbery said.

Wheat for animal feed

USDA includes wheat being used as animal feed in the "residual wheat" category. It's about 19% higher for this marketing year than a year ago, "but if corn is cheap, we don't feed nearly as much wheat as we do when corn is expensive," Fortenbery said.

It's hard to know whether wheat is likely to increase or decrease domestically for livestock feed over the previous marketing year, he said.

Farm bill outlook

Many of the agricultural community's concerns were addressed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed into law July 4.

"There's still a lot of things missing, but given the current environment in Washington, D.C.. and the lack of ability from either party to agree with the other party on anything, at least through the end of this year, I don't think we have a farm bill," Fortenbery said. "Enough stuff was incorporated in The One Big Beautiful Bill that it probably satisfied the ag lobbyists, at least in the short-term. So the pressure is probably off to actually do a comprehensive farm bill at this point

With all of the agricultural policy instruments included in the bill, crop insurance support prices for wheat were raised from $5.50 per bushel to $6.35 per bushel.

That means farmers in the Price Loss Coverage program have a higher base for payments than they previously did. It will affect the crop farmers are about to plant come fall, Fortenbery said.

The bill also increased the amount the government pays towards crop insurance.

"There are some positives that came out of the most recent legislation, but it doesn't drive us to significantly higher prices yet," Fortenbery said.

Related Pages:
USDA: Larger Wheat Supplies, Fewer Exports, Lower Prices by Matthew Weaver, Capital Press, 3/12/25
Congress to Pay Farmers as Wheat and Barley Prices Tanked by Tom Peterson, Columbia Connection, 1/7/25
Abundant Wheat Supplies Depress World Prices, But Hope Emerges by Carol Ryan Dumas, Capital Press, 12/24/24
Northwest Wheat Leaders Connect with South American Buyers by Matthew Weaver, Capital Press, 11/11/24
NW Wheat Harvest: Yields and Exports Up, Prices Down by Matthew Weaver, Capital Press, 8/2/24
Global Wheat Stocks Tight, Prices Volatile in Year of War, Drought by Carol Ryan Dumas, Capital Press, 12/20/22
Wheat Prices Fall to Pre-War Levels by Matthew Weaver, Capital Press, 7/6/22