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USDA Projects Lowest Wheat Acreage Since 1919 by Matthew Weaver Capital Press, April 1, 2026

As of March 1, the U.S. had 1.3 billion bushels of wheat on hand, most of it off-farm.

As USDA projects less corn and wheat and more soybeans planted this year in its annual prospective plantings report, market analysts don't expect much shift in prices.

All-wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025.

"If realized, this represents the lowest all-wheat planted area since records began in 1919," USDA states.

"Wheat's been losing acres to corn and beans for a long time," said Byron Behne, senior market analyst at Northwest Grain Growers in Walla Walla, Wash. "Nobody's really making money on anything right now, so nobody's trying to plant extra."

Soft white wheat traded at about $6.30 per bushel on the Portland market.

Wheat prices were up about 8 or 9 cents per bushel, said Dan Steiner, who retired from Morrow County Grain Growers in 2023 and now works as a market analyst in Boardman, Ore.

He believes that had more to do with poor moisture and lowered crop ratings in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas than USDA's report.

"You've got some of the biggest wheat producers not rating really high," Steiner said.

The market more less discounted the report, Behne echoed.

"Southern Plains weather, the Iran War and energy prices are the dominant market movers right now," he said.

In the Pacific Northwest, the wheat is looking "really good," Steiner said.

"It's growing slow, it's doing extremely well," Steiner said. "I would rather have this kind of temperature and situation than for it to be in the 80s. We do not need this crop to run out of gas. Every day that we have 60s, 70s, even in the 50s, buys us another day until the next rain system comes through."

Some wheat acres in Nebraska will be taken out, while some acres, even in the Pacific Northwest, simply won't be planted, Steiner said.

"Snowfall is light enough and moisture is limited enough that there are going to be some irrigated acres that simply will be fallow this year," he said. "The idea that wheat acres are going to be low or maybe record low, yeah, I can totally buy into that. But the stocks are still very ample."

Ample supplies

"It's just numbers -- there's not a lot of reality to these things, but they get a lot of attention," said Darin Newsom, Omaha, Neb., analyst. "What do the stocks tell us? As of March 1, the U.S. had 1.3 billion bushels of wheat on hand, most of it off-farm. That was 5% more than last year. As we look ahead, we're not going to run out of wheat any time soon. I don't care if it's the smallest acres since 1919 -- who's going to buy U.S. wheat? Nobody, but it got played today, so markets rallied."

Such reports are designed to generate trade, Newsom noted.

"If wheat numbers continue to come down, even if there's no more demand for them, even if we have ample supplies, because the numbers themselves that are posted continue to come down, yeah, the markets are going to rally," he said. "The bottom line is, wheat acres were reduced and the market reacted."

Winter wheat acres are already accounted for, he said. "Now we'll see what the weather does."

Higher fuel and fertilizer costs are more likely to be reflected in corn and soybean acreage than wheat, Newsom said. The winter wheat crop planted next fall is where an effect will be most likely, he added.

"Skyrocketing" input costs will likely be the biggest concern moving forward, Behne said.

"Wheat prices have come up a little bit, but I don't think it's enough to offset those other costs right now," he said.

Wheat numbers

The 2026 winter wheat planted area, at 32.4 million acres, is down 2% from the previous year, according to USDA's report.

About 23.1 million acres are hard red winter wheat, 5.79 million acres are soft red winter wheat and 3.54 million acres are white winter wheat. Acreage expected to be planted to spring wheat for 2026 is estimated at 9.42 million acres, down 6% from the 2025 estimate. About 8.78 million acres are hard red spring wheat. Durum is expected to total 1.95 million acres, down 11% from the previous year.

Corn and soybean numbers

Corn planting is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3% and 3.45 million acres from last year. Planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating states compared to last year, according to the report.

Soybean planting is estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of 29 estimating states compared to last year, according to the report.

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