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What are Chances of Blackouts Here? It Depends by Ross Anderson Seattle Times, January 21, 2001

As not-so-sunny California gropes through a darkening regional energy crisis, Northwest power managers continue to believe they can keep the lights burning in Puget Sound country.

But they acknowledge that could change at any instant. Just one of several unanticipated snafus - a short circuit in the wiring at Grand Coulee Dam, a tree falling on a major transmission line or even a few days of subzero temperatures - could douse the lights, televisions and computer screens of Western Washington.

"We don't expect rolling blackouts," says Emmett Heath, a vice president at the Snohomish County Public Utility District. "But the prudent thing to do is to dust off our contingency plans."

Blackouts and the threat of billion-dollar bankruptcies in Southern California get plenty of attention in the Pacific Northwest because of the intricate wiring - literal and figurative - between regions. For years, California and Northwest utilities have exchanged vast amounts of power, based on who needs it and who has it at any point in time.

Suddenly, neither region has what it needs. Spiraling natural-gas prices, a failed deregulation policy in California, an unseasonably dry Northwest winter and other uncertainties have left utilities from Bellingham to San Diego scrambling for precious electrons.

Then there is the uncertainty of a new Bush administration with close ties to the oil industry and no love for the public power that has fueled the Northwest for most of a century.

The electric utilities that serve Puget Sound-area homes and businesses face different degrees of risk, based on where and how they get their electricity. Here's a glimpse at how they are faring with the crunch:

Puget Sound Energy

Bellevue-based PSE says it has contracted for the power it needs to get through the winter. But the utility depends heavily on distant power turbines it does not own.

The investor-owned company is Washington's largest, providing power and natural gas to 920,000 homes and businesses on the Eastside, in South King County cities and suburbs, and from Bellingham and Port Townsend to Olympia.

"So far, we've maintained a balanced position with long-term contracts for power at fixed prices," says Tim Hogan, a Puget Sound Energy vice president. "But it is a tenuous balance."

The company owns little generating capacity: several small to midsize hydroelectric projects, including Snoqualmie Falls, and seven oil- or gas-fired power plants. The company buys more than 75 percent of its power from other sources, primarily from Douglas and Chelan counties, which operate major Columbia River dams, and from a large coal-burning plant in Montana.

What could go wrong? The power supply could run short if a major generator fails, as has happened recently in California, Hogan says, or if a major storm drops temperatures and increases demand for electricity.

The long-range outlook is more iffy. The snowpack in Washington's mountains is only 76 percent of average, Hogan says. That means there will be less runoff next spring and summer to drive hydropower generators, and so less electricity to go around.

And, as contracts expire, Puget Sound Energy will be increasingly vulnerable to the huge price increases that have nearly bankrupted two utilities in California.

Seattle City Light

The city-owned utility, which serves 344,000 homes and businesses in and around Seattle, appears to be in a better position than its cross-lake counterpart. But it is hardly immune from the crisis.

City Light's main advantage is that it owns about half of its own generation, primarily hydroelectric dams in Eastern Washington and Whatcom County. At some times of the year, these projects produce enough power to fuel Seattle.

But this is not that time of year. High wintertime power demand and low hydroelectric production lead to chronic shortages. And California has little or nothing to sell - at any price.

"So far, the region is in balance, and City Light is better off than most," says utility spokesman Bob Royer. "But could we handle five or six days of an Arctic Express cold-weather front? We don't know."

The long-term outlook is good, City Light Superintendent Gary Zarker says. The utility has contracted for more power from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), beginning Oct. 1. And it has bought 100 megawatts of production from a Klamath Falls, Ore., plant due to come online in July.

Those purchases, combined with a new conservation campaign, will produce a "safe harbor" beginning later this year. The challenge is to get through the winter and summer without blackouts.

Snohomish County PUD

The Everett-based public-utility district, which serves more than 250,000 homes and businesses in the county, may be in somewhat greater jeopardy because it has little control over its power supply.

The PUD owns two small generating plants, but more than 90 percent of its power comes from other sources, primarily the BPA, a coal-fired plant in Centralia and spot purchases on the volatile Western power market.

Barring a plunge in temperatures or a glitch in the Bonneville system, there should be no blackouts, says spokesman Heath.

In the longer run, the Snohomish County PUD has increased its purchases from the BPA to 85 percent of its needs beginning in October, Heath says.

But even Bonneville, the massive Columbia River powerhouse that fuels most of the region, is not entirely safe from the so-called perfect storm.

The federal agency, which markets and transmits the electricity from federal dams, is under increasing attack by California and Midwest legislators who say it is not fair that California has to pay outlandish prices for bits of BPA power that Northwest ratepayers get for pennies.

Until recently, Bonneville enjoyed the political protection of influential Northwest senators from the late Warren Magnuson to Slade Gorton. Gorton, however, lost his seat last fall, leaving the BPA more vulnerable than ever. And neither of the state's relatively junior senators has the clout the fill the void.

Now the Northwest's heritage of cheap, plentiful power may rest with the incoming Bush administration, which preaches the virtues of the free market and owes little to Western states that voted heavily in November for Al Gore.

As a result, backers fear that a frigid political front could soon be added to the region's perfect storm.