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Irrigator Association's Study Measures Dam Breaching Disruption by Matthew Weaver Capital Press, March 1, 2024

"If you make the decision today or tomorrow, then you just need to send
the mitigation asset check to us and we will take it from there."
-- Darryll Olsen, Columbia-Snake River Irrigators Association

An irrigators association estimates it would cost as much as $1 billion to keep farming if the four lower Snake River dams are ever breached.

Washington state and the Bonneville Power Administration would need to pay irrigators about $750 million over four years to reconstruct about 25 pump stations in the event of breaching, and cover disruption to their farms as the dams are removed and replaced, according to the Columbia-Snake River Irrigators Association.

The estimate includes direct construction costs, potential decreases in land value, loss of direct farm revenues, some on-farm processing losses, and some on-farm employment revenues, said Darryll Olsen, board representative for the association.

Total regional income -- the annual value of household income tied to the affected irrigation area -- are estimated to range from $450 million to $464 million.

"The overall regional, annual household income losses cannot be fully mitigated -- a social welfare loss to society at large," Olsen said.

An alternative scenario, building a main pipeline, is estimated to cost $500 million to $1 billion.

"You're flirting with $1 billion no matter what you do," Olsen said, adding that CSRIA assumes the state and BPA would pay those costs as well.

Reconstruction timelines from design to operations are estimated to be two to five years.

Disruption would be unavoidable, the study found.

"We've reached the conclusion (avoiding disruption) cannot be done -- you're going to have some impact," Olsen said.

The impact on some pump stations would be at least one year of disruption. Building and reconstruction would take longer than that, Olsen said.

"No matter what you do, you're going to end up with one or two years of disruption to production," he said. "We just don't see any way around that."

CSRIA prepared the report on the economic impacts of dam breaching for the state Department of Ecology's Office of the Columbia River and the state legislature.

Association members irrigate about 300,000 acres of prime row crop, vineyard and orchard land in Eastern Washington. The majority of the 92,500 acres that would be affected by dam breaching are CSRIA members, Olsen said.

Under the association's proposed plan, the state and BPA would share the cost of the mitigation, using long-term bonds to borrow the money used to pay the irrigators.

The study covers 99.9% of irrigation affected by the four dams, Olsen said.

There would be no additional costs other than further potential impacts on asset value, such as distressed land values below baseline market value, he said. The distressed asset value risk would be assumed by the irrigators.

CSRIA would form a trust and allocate the funding to irrigators.

"It makes sense, in our view, to have one point in which you're dealing with the financial transaction," Olsen said. "Whether you're a member or not, you would receive mitigation payment on an equitable, dollar-per-acre approach. Everybody gets the same dollar amount per acre, unless there was some obvious structural difference."

The report only considers irrigation impacts, but the association has "cogent thinking" about how to deal with the transportation sector impacts, he said.

Previous studies

Olsen said the association wanted to give the state an accurate portrayal of the total range of impact on irrigators.

CSRIA members believed previous studies were lacking. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Columbia River System Operations environmental impact statement, was done "incorrectly and wrong. They had the wrong numbers," Olsen said.

Also, the Kramer report commissioned by Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee "really wasn't even a report -- it photocopied a bunch of stuff."

Other stakeholders

Other agricultural stakeholders say they prefer the Corps' four-year CRSO study, which they say is "based in science" compared to later studies.

"What concerns me is the reported ecological damage caused by dam removal with the high cost to family job losses in the region," said Matt Harris, director of government affairs at the Washington State Potato Commission, of CSRIA's report. "We could see a decade of recovery and billions of dollars needed from the federal government supporting those who would be devastated from this tragic loss -- all with no guarantee salmon would ever recover in the lower Snake River."

Anthony Pena, government relations manager for the Pacific Northwest Waterways Association, isn't certain how feasible or realistic CSRIA's projected timeline is.

"That's in a perfect scenario, you're going to get something built in two years," he said. "The current regulatory environment we're living in, let alone in the Columbia River Gorge area, you're lucky if you're going to get a permit within two years for that substantial amount of infrastructure you need to build."

While the report is "well-prepared," Pena still sees "glaring questions that are kind of glossed over and not really addressed."

"I do think there are some really big questions when you're talking about what happens to farmers in those two years," he said. "It's the farmer, it's our agricultural communities who are left holding the bucket, not Olympia or other regulators."

Breaching outlook

Olsen said he doesn't foresee all four dams being breached. It will likely be one or two in the upper projects within a 15- to 20-year timeframe, he said.

The association encouraged plaintiffs to seriously review another alternative to four-dam breaching during the mediation process, Olsen noted.

CSRIA "fully" supports the litigation settlement agreement and the likely 10-year period it takes dam breaching off the table, he said.

"We've never supported four-dam breaching," Olsen said. But "we knew for certain the status quo was totally unacceptable."

CSRIA is talking with the state about other options for direct construction impacts and has been asked to submit another proposal for a more detailed, technical study examining the main pipeline scenario.

"We're definitely pleased with the level of credibility we have with the governor's office and Senator Murray," Olsen said.

Murray in 2022 called for more information about the impacts and the replacement services of dam breaching. Olsen says the report fulfills Murray's request.

"We know the impact, we know how to do the infrastructure changes and we are prepared to receive the mitigation to make that go forward," he said. "If you make the decision today or tomorrow, then you just need to send the mitigation asset check to us and we will take it from there."

CSRIA could proceed at any time if decision-makers call for four-dam breaching, Olsen said.

"If the powers that be say 'OK, we're going to do four-dam breaching,' we're just saying 'OK, here's the deal, ready to go,'" he said. "We're looking at it and saying, 'We're not going to argue with you. We're beyond that. If you do this, we'll move forward.'"

Related Sites:
Irrigation Sector Economic Impacts on the Lower Snake River by Columbia-Snake River Irrigators Association Kennewick, WA, January 2024

Related Sites:
Columbia Basin Project
Odessa Sub-area Special Study