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More Bad News on Columbia River Steelhead Return This Year, Less Than Half of Preseason Forecast by Staff Columbia Basin Bulletin, October 2, 2026

The Snake River is closed to retention of
wild fall Chinook and wild summer steelhead

Columbia River fisheries biologists further downgraded the already poor summer steelhead run size forecast this week to less than half the preseason forecast and they downgraded slightly a fairly decent fall Chinook run size.

Fish passage so far this year at Bonneville Dam reflects the expected run sizes, with passage of summer steelhead at Bonneville Dam continuing to be the worst since the dam was commissioned in 1938. On the other hand, even with a small drop this week in the anticipated run size, passage of fall Chinook at the dam is still the fourth highest in the last ten years.

The U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee met Monday, Sept. 28, dropping its fall Chinook run size estimate to 605,900 fish at the Columbia River mouth, down slightly from TAC's Sept. 21 forecast of 612,000 fish. The preseason forecast was 636,500 fish The latest in-season run size forecast includes 231,700 upriver brights, 93,300 pool upriver brights and 135,300 Bonneville pool hatchery fish.

TAC's summer steelhead forecast continues to fall and the fisheries biologists are now predicting a run of both A- and B-Index summer steelhead of 56,900 fish, including 50,400 A-Index fish (17,400 of those are unclipped) and a paltry run of B-Index fish of 6,500 (1,500 unclipped). TAC's Sept. 21 run size forecast was 59,200 A- and B-Index steelhead. Its preseason forecast for the combined A- and B-Index upriver summer steelhead return was 133,700 fish, with 87,900 A-Index fish, including 33,100 unclipped fish, 40,000 B-Index fish, including 4,500 unclipped fish, and 5,700 upriver Skamania stock fish, including 2,400 unclipped fish.

A-Index steelhead are fish under 31 inches and arrive at Bonneville earlier than the B-Index fish, which are 31 inches or larger. B-Index steelhead are generally headed to Idaho's Clearwater River.

Passage of early stock coho salmon, which are not forecasted by TAC, is the fourth lowest in the last 10 years.

Information about TAC's latest in-season run size forecasts is included in the Two-State Columbia River Compact's Fall Fact Sheet No. 7 (09-30-26 Fall Fact Sheet No. 7.pdf). The Compact held a hearing Sept. 29, approving 3.5 more days of Treaty gillnetting in Zone 6 in areas upstream of Bonneville and downstream of McNary dams. The Compact's Sept. 30 Action Notice is here: Columbia River Action Notice

Passage by the numbers

• As of Sept. 29, some 415,221 fall Chinook had passed Bonneville Dam, the fourth largest count at the dam in the last 10 years. The adult count is comprised of 264,495 bright stock fish, 99,908 adult sized tule stock fish and 50,818 jack aged tules that are just over the adult size limit (the largest number on record), according to the Compact's Fact Sheet. For jack-sized fish at Bonneville, the count is 124,486, which is third largest to date on record. The ad clip rate for adult chinook is 61.6 percent, which is higher than average.

• Spring Creek National Fish Hatchery staff have collected over 104,000 fish. According to the Fact Sheet, they finished spawning last week, spawning 3,964 females and collecting over 15 million eggs. Program totals of fish handled through Sept. 24, were 20,335 males, 29,224 females, and 54,118 jacks.

• Some 80,684 fall Chinook have passed McNary Dam as of Sept. 29, which is the second lowest count to date in the last 10 years. Based on 10-year average run timing, the run would be expected to reach 79 percent complete on September 29.

• Passage of fall chinook at Lower Granite dam as of Sept. 29 was 21,768 fish, which is the 5th largest count in the last 10 years. Based on 10-year average run timing, the run would be expected to reach 83 percent complete on Sept. 29.

• Passage of summer steelhead at Bonneville Dam -- the count for summer steelhead is July 1 through Sept. 29 -- is 55,184 A- and B-Index fish (including 18,559 unclipped fish). Both the total and unclipped cumulative count counts to date are the lowest A/B Index counts on record.

  * Some 68,684 coho salmon had passed Bonneville Dam through Sept. 29. These are early-stock coho, which are coho that pass the dam prior to Oct. 1. That is the fourth lowest count to date in the last 10 years. The coho jack count totals 10,086. The jack count to date is the fifth largest to date in the last 10 years.

Recreational angling for fall Chinook is closed from Buoy 10 to the Oregon/Washington border on the mainstem Columbia River. Coho angling is open, with a three hatchery coho per day bag limit through Oct. 15. Retention of steelhead is closed throughout the river.

The Snake River is closed to retention of wild fall Chinook and wild summer steelhead; the Umatilla River in Oregon is closed to fall Chinook retention through Nov. 30; the Deschutes and John Day rivers, both also in Oregon, are closed to steelhead retention.

Related Pages:
Columbia River Steelhead Run Forecast Downgraded Again by Michael Wright, Spokesman-Review, 9/30/26
Rotten Run: Snake River Steelhead Return Stacking Up to be the Lowest on Record by Eric Barker, Lewiston Tribune, 9/16/26
A-run Steelhead Trending Below Average Return by Eric Barker, Moscow-Pullman Daily News, 8/6/26
A-run Steelhead Surpass Expectations by Eric Barker, Lewiston Tribune, 8/21/25